The Coming Recession and How to Survive it as a Gaijin

Thought I’d share some of my thoughts on the coming recession here in Japan. Before anyone attacks my claim that a recession is coming, first do your research on the economical ties that Japan shares with the United States of America, (Freebie FIY: During Japan’s last recession, which started in the early 1990s (The almighty US and others countries also experienced the same recession) and please understand that the US is now in a recession – yeah, didn’t you hear? Watch.

So let’s just skip the whole section on how the recession has come about in the US and how it will spread to Japan. Lets just assume its coming and ask ourselves how, we as gaijin, can weather the situation. (This essay assumes you will be living out your days here in Japan, as I will.)

Let’s also assume that we should expect an especially severe recession, one that is deflationary in nature. And that the recession will eventually lead into what’s called a depression. While politicians, business leaders, and the news media all have coherent, cohesive social groupings, the sort of people who intend to navigate the recession and even a depression are scattered to the four winds, especially us ‘gaijin’ in Japan right? Not only about the given stuff, like keeping our jobs so we can buy stuff and pay rent, but the stuff like how we will keep the fruit bowl on the kitchen table full of fruit in a country with a current 39% food self-sufficiency rate.

Let’s talk about food first.

There’s this novel idea of curbing world population to bring down demand so we can all continue on consuming at current levels.I guess that’s worked in pro-business and pro-wealthy countries for a long time, including Japan, but realistically it can’t work forever as a worsening industrial and service economy ensues.

Furthermore, Japan may be experiencing depopulation now, but while the population is growing rapidly in other parts of the world, the main source of the energy Japan buys from abroad (oil) is depleting. Even if you don’t believe the peak oil hype, the high prices of oil show that the effect it has on prices and production of everything is enough to show that we can’t possibly depend on it forever, especially when a recession sets in. If you combine the effects of the increasing population abroad and diminishing food and energy coming in from abroad, you get the indication of how things will develop.

The most important question I feel is one that is frequently overlooked: How will we obtain food from abroad when new-age industrial agri-business has ever lessoning hydrocarbons for fertilizer and pesticides, and few for cultivating the crops or transporting them? My answer: unless we plan on living off wild mountain veg and shrooms, we will have to grow our own food -Together as a people inhabiting this small island, but also on an individual (family) level as well. As an example, modern day cuba’s “alternative agriculture” comes to mind.

The Alternative Model seeks to promote ecologically sustainable production by replacing the dependence on heavy farm machinery and chemical inputs with animal traction, crop and pasture rotation, soil conservation, organic soil inputs, biological pest control, and biofertilizers and biopesticides. The Alternative Model requires the reincorporation of rural populations into agriculture - through both their labor as well as their knowledge of traditional farming techniques and their active participation in the generation of new, more appropriate technologies. This model is designed to stem the rural-urban flood of migrants, and to provide food security for the nation’s population.

Furthermore, the days of Japan’s government keeping the farm work force to a minimum are almost over (read
The One-Straw Revolution for more details) - The pockets of the rich have been far too lined by corporate techno-fix utopia ideas, food and stuff from abroad.

Now onto Jobs.

Let’s face it; when the recession hits some of the first jobs to go will be lots of those that us gaijin fill. i.e. English teacher, Model, International Trade, et al. (What’s your current job? Think it’s a safe bet to pin your hopes and dreams on?) Reasons: When the recession hits people will be uncertain about their economic security, tend to save, or at least will moderate their spending. This means lots of service-based jobs (companies that provide entertainment and fun for a price) will be the first to go. Everything from gorgeous love-hotels to English schools to a big chunk of the materialistic fashion industry.

I remember reading that during the great depression in the US (1929-1933), some of the most common jobs were, ready for this? – Persons engaged in liquor stores (なるほど), persons engaged in repair services, persons engaged in seconded hand stores, persons engaged in legal services and last but not least, people engaged in farming. If these were to be the leading job fields when the recession and depresion hit Japan, which I suspect they might be, wondering what percent of the gaijin workforce here in Japan will work, or will be able to work, in these respective fields? Can’t be much.

Much ado.

All the best to you and yours,