Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate is…………

39%. 39 ? Really ? Nah– more like 10%. Or it could be 65%? All depends on how you look at it !

Current situation:

A.) lotsa farming experience being lost
B.) Japan at a (reported) 39% food self-sufficiency rate
C.) Population shrinkage

Analysis.

A.) 2/3 of all Japanese farmers are in their 60’s, so in ten years time they’ll be in their 70’s. Ouch.

B.) As noted, the national food self-sufficiency rate is at 39%. But I don’t take this number seriously. Reason being, it could be a lot lower or a lot higher depending on how you look at it. This number has been figured without taking into account non-industrial agricultural methods. It has also been figured taking into account current food and fuel import levels. Also, we can’t forget about the types of foods that are currently being eatin. Like all statistical numbers, it is flawed. At any rate, I think the type of transition and outcome we see in the farming sector will mainly be determined by how soon or how late the price of everything increases.

C.) Our Government projects that within 50 years, the population, now 127 million, will fall by a third. However , this projection does not take into account any dire events that may take place within this time frame. i.e., food shortages from abroad, fuel shortages from abroad, natural disasters, etc. Also, this projection does not take into account what would happen if our current over-working urban culture were to revert back to a culture of agri, or a real agri based culture.

In closing, I wonder if it would be safe to say that ancient peoples saw life like a circle. And now, civilized people see the past, the present, and the future as a line. But what we are going to see in the coming years will be more like an open plain - with epic transitions - like we’ve never seen before!

ken